Speaker 1: All right, so this is the Natick School Committee. It's Tuesday, July 22nd at 6:10 PM and we're calling the meeting to order. This meeting is being recorded and will be available for a later viewing. So we'll do roll call first. I see Mr. Brand Speaker 2: Present. Speaker 1: Mr. Patel? Present. Speaker 2: Ms. Collins? Speaker 1: Here. Ms. Lathers? Here. Ms. Brunell Speaker 2: Making our, they have to Speaker 1: Be remote. Okay. Staying remote. And also I think you need to say that you're participating remotely. Ms. Lathers just here participating remotely. Okay.
Speaker 2: Catherine's Speaker 3: Here participating remotely. Speaker 1: Okay. And, and Ms. Gomes Gomez. Did I pronounce that correctly? Speaker 2: Who? Who's Speaker 1: That? Keani. I Speaker 2: You. Speaker 1: Okay. We'll just make you a co-host so you can participate. Okay. Ms. Gomes, can you hear us Now Speaker 4: You can unmute yourself. Speaker 5: Oh, there we go. Awesome. Thank you. Yes, I am here participating remotely. Okay. For some reason it wasn't letting me unmute. I apologize. Speaker 1: Okay. No, no. Thank you so much and welcome to your first school committee meeting. We're so happy to have you with us. Thank you.
Speaker 5: Happy to be here. Speaker 1: Yeah. Miss is Gomes correct Pronunciation? Yes. Speaker 5: Yep. Okay. Speaker 1: Jones is, she's fine. Thank you. Ms. Gomes is our newly appointed representative of the METCO families. So, and has just joined school committee. So welcome. Speaker 5: Thank you so much. Speaker 1: Okay. So, and Ms. Brunell, you're here as well. Speaker 3: You Yes. Here participating remotely. Speaker 1: Okay. Super. Okay. So we'll stand for the Pledge of Allegiance and a moment of silence Speaker 2: P pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands under God,
individual liberty and justice for all. Speaker 1: And we take that moment of silence to honor our troops serving us domestically and abroad. So first order of business. Do we have any announcements? Speaker 6: I'd like to just generally share that we've been really pleased with the process for seeking out an interim principle for Bennett Hemingway. And we anticipate having an announcement to families and staff and the general public by the end of the week, which is great news. And we were able even in summertime to kind of get many members of staff on that as well as a family member and the
principal Gani who's moving over to Memorial. So we were pleased with that. Speaker 1: Wonderful. Thank you. Dr. Stash. Any announcements from any committee members? Online? Okay. All right. Oh, Ms. Collins? No. No. Okay. All right. So we'll now move to public speak. Public speak is scheduled for a period of 15 minutes. Do we have A period of 15 minutes? Each speaker will be permitted a maximum of three minutes during which time they can speak about topics within the scope of responsibility of the school committee. All remarks will be addressed through the school committee chair.
Public speak is not a time for debate or response to comments by the school committee. I don't have anyone who contacted me by email. I see no one in the room. Is there anybody online seeking public speak? Please identify yourself with a hands up if there is. Okay. So we'll close public speak and move to our agenda. So our first order of business is an enrollment study report, which I'll turn over to Dr. Stash. Speaker 6: We actually anticipate the individual coming in to present on that at six 30. Oh six 30. So we can shift around a little bit. Okay. On the agenda. Sure. And that person will, what's her name?
Speaker 7: Tracy Healy. Our company is called Future Think. Speaker 6: You have to go on. Speaker 1: Okay. Speaker 8: Okay. Sorry. Tracy Healy is the consultant's name her, her company is called Future Think and they've, they've done some work locally as well in Wellesley and Medfield as well as for us. Speaker 6: So they'll be coming on through Zoom. Okay. Speaker 1: Sounds good. All right. So we can move to our other two agenda items. So the first was just to briefly discuss our agendas for our two upcoming summer retreats, which I think everyone should have gotten a Google placeholder four from Linda.
Did anyone on the committee not get invitations to those meetings for the times? So one of those we were going to, and I'm going to be working Dr. Fons not here tonight, but he and I were going to work on trying to wrap in some of the work we did with Dr. Am Jackson in our last two retreats into our work for preparing the school committee goals. So that was one topic that we wanted to spend one retreat on. Does anyone have any thoughts about what we can add to that
or any specific topics for the retreat on school committee goals? Speaker 9: When do you anticipate holding that one? Speaker 1: So I think you're available the next meeting right Next week. Is it the 29th? 29th Speaker 6: Is on hold? Speaker 1: Yeah. So the 29th. Okay. Yeah. 'cause I think you're not, Speaker 9: Because I can, I can do the 29th. Yep. There was another date that I had a problem with and I just, Speaker 1: Yeah, August 26th I think, or Speaker 6: That's the Speaker 1: Other one. Yeah. 26th or 28th. 26th. Speaker 9: Because I thought it was at one point it was August, it was July 28th that you were doing a joint meeting.
Speaker 1: No Speaker 9: Retreat. And so I just wanted to make sure that Speaker 1: Yeah, no, so the 29th. Yeah. So I think we can, yeah, so I think we should have a good quorum for that one. So we can start and if we need to continue the goals discussion, we do have the August 26th meeting following that as well. Okay. So if anybody has any thoughts on any specific topics or points of discussion that you'd like to include that if you could just email me and Shai between now and next Thursday
and we'll try to plot out sort of a nice flow to the evening so that we can be efficient and hopefully get a lot done. Okay. And then the next agenda item is just a brief Speaker 10: Yess. Speaker 1: Oh yes, Ms. Lathers. Speaker 10: I just wanna, I didn't, I got your email about it, but I didn't get an invitation to those two retreat meetings. Speaker 1: You didn't get anything from Linda. Okay. Speaker 10: I got email, but it, it's not on the calendar. I dunno if we were supposed to get an invitation. Yes. I don't know. Speaker 6: So holds online, do that. Speaker 1: Yes. I can send her an I did ask her,
but yeah, let's remind her. Yeah, Speaker 6: There's another hold I think on the 30th. Is that another hold we're supposed to have? Speaker 1: Let me just open there. Speaker 10: There's a hold on the 31st for the budget subcommittee meeting. Speaker 6: Yep. We do have that one. I think maybe this was just in my calendar, maybe Matt, you know about it. It was a hold MSBA school committee enrollment study meeting, which we're doing tonight. So I think that is, that is not something we need to have on there. Okay. Speaker 10: Yeah, I have tonight's and I have the 31st. I don't have the other two, so I just, doesn't matter, just check in.
Speaker 1: Okay. Yeah, no apologies for that. We will make sure that, that those get sent out tomorrow for sure. But there, it's consistent with the email that I sent out. Those are the dates. There was no changes made to the dates from the last email I sent. Speaker 10: And I assume it is a retreat. It's, there's not a virtual option. So it would be in person on Tuesday, is that correct? Speaker 1: So if needed, we can have a virtual option, but I anticipate we might be using the whiteboards, like the physical whiteboards in the room. So it might be a little bit more difficult, but we could at the very least do a Google meet should
for school committee members, I guess Speaker 4: Could at Speaker 11: Least conference Speaker 1: People. Yeah, we could at least conference people in to the live meeting. Would that be helpful? Speaker 10: Yeah, well we can chat offline about religious. Speaker 1: Okay. Yeah, I think we're in the community center, so I don't think we have the same options that we do here for sort of video conferencing. Speaker 11: If it's a posted meeting, which it is and there's a virtual option, we have to just make sure that the virtual option is posted for everybody. Speaker 1: For everybody. Even if we just have a member conferencing in, Speaker 11: I think it has to be posted.
Speaker 1: 'cause the meeting Speaker 11: For everybody, Speaker 1: The meeting, it's a live meeting. It's just somebody who's joining by phone Speaker 11: That makes it a live and virtual meeting. Which I think for equity reasons, it has to be available for everybody. Speaker 1: Okay. We'll look into Speaker 11: That. Other people join in is not, you know, like I just think we, we can't create a virtual option for one person or only school committee members. Speaker 1: Okay. 'cause in the past we've had people just call into like our meetings here and then they've been, Speaker 9: Right. Speaker 11: But those are posted live meetings that have virtual options. Speaker 1: I see. Okay. Okay. Okay. So we'll make sure we post it correctly. So I'll follow up with Linda on that. Okay.
Speaker 9: Madam Chair, just for your information. Yes, Speaker 1: Yes. Speaker 9: I'm feeling unloved by the system again. Oh Speaker 1: No. Tell us what's going on, Ms. Col Collins will Speaker 9: Not let me hit get into the what internet, so, Speaker 1: Oh. Just so you know. Okay. Speaker 4: I'll be over in a few minutes. That'd be great. Speaker 1: Mr. Brand is wearing several hats tonight. The biggest big tech support right now. Okay, thank you. Okay, so, alright, so then the only other item we have before we get to the enrollment study report is just sort of a, a review
and just a sort of an awareness session about the, the financial management principles that the town side is developing and has been reviewing. I think at the last select board meeting they reviewed several of the draft financial management principle documents. So we've been invited to review these documents and to provide, do Speaker 9: I know Speaker 1: Feedback as we wish, not as part of any official process, but unofficially if, if we would like
to provide any feedback about how these principles might affect school operations or if there's any conflict with any existing policies that we have. I think it's on us to review these documents and just ensure that there's nothing we need to alert the town about where we might not be walk, be able to work kind of in sync with them. I don't know if anybody from the budgets and finance subcommittee wants to speak. I believe this is on your agenda. Speaker 10: It is. It's on the agenda for next week. We had scheduling challenges to get it,
but we'll be on that Jennifer next week. Speaker 1: Okay. And I think this is our opportunity, since we're in open session, if anybody has any questions about these documents or our sort of purpose or role in reviewing them, now would be the time to sort of share those or the timeline. Ms. Collins, Speaker 9: I continue to be concerned that though they are the chief executive officers of the town, they do not get to determine our budget process, our budget timeline, what we ask for, any of those things. We are an independent body under state law for a reason
and they can make up whatever rule they want. It does not make us beholden to it. However, Speaker 1: Yes, appreciated. And I think that that's one of the, the values of being able to review these documents as they're being finalized is that we can have that discussion prior to finalization of those documents. Yeah. And Ms. Brunel and I did have a meeting with some of the select board and FinCon members last week, just kind of a check-in meeting. And at that meeting the process was described to us as
the select board is going to be reviewing and approving these principles kind of over the next few weeks and should we have any requested amendments or changes that might allow us to work in a more aligned way with them. I guess this is my view of, of why we might want to make comments. We can provide those comments and feedback to the select board at any time and at the next review of the documents, we can bring up those points if the documents have already been approved. So it's a, yeah, it's a bit of a non-linear process
of us being involved in reviewing these documents. But I think it will be important for us to ensure that, that we are doing our work of a, of the school committee and oversight of the school budget according to what our remit is and what the law defines as our role. Ms. Ms. Flas Speaker 10: Just wanna say if anyone else on the committee wants to send any comments or have a conversation about it before we meet in budget subcommittee next week, happy to receive it. Speaker 1: Okay, thank you. And then do you anticipate that you might bring comments back to the full committee
sort of in at a September meeting? How will we hear any comments that you, or any assessment you might have of the documents? Speaker 10: I think the que I think the, I think it comes down to what ever urgency there might be. If there's anything that we wanna bring to the committee's attention sooner than that. If there's any serious concerns. I mean, Kathy, it sounds like you have some concerns about it, but we might not be able to control what gets approved but you know, our comments about it. So yeah, I think we should assume that there'll be a readout in a conversation in September.
But if we need to do anything before that, I suppose, I guess we don't really, we don't have another meeting until August. So I guess Melissa, I don't know whether that was something that those concerns could come from you directly to the rest of the committee. Speaker 1: Yeah, Speaker 6: I think I'm almost envisioning, depending on what happens as we go over that in subcommittee, we could construct some key points in a memo that would go to the school committee and then we could follow up if the school committee's interested in
September with a discussion. That would be my recommendation. Speaker 10: That makes sense to me. Speaker 1: Okay. Mr Brand, Speaker 11: I guess I would just say we should be careful about conversations that we school committee members have about that could be considered deliberation outside of meetings. So in preparation for subcommittee meetings, it's one thing about asking for or requesting administrative like topics that I would like to have discussed. But having my thoughts on a topic that I know is coming up,
even if it's one-on-one, is risky as opposed to waiting until the actual meeting. Speaker 10: I am more inclined if you wanna send, not for deliberation, just questions that you have want answered. Speaker 11: I think that's probably Okay. Speaker 10: That was what I referred to you, Speaker 11: Matt. Whatever, I mean I, it's all, it's obviously in the right spirit, I just wanna make sure we do it. Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, no, I'm glad we're having this discussion. That was the kind of the point of being able to have this discussion tonight is so that we would approach the, the work of the budget budget subcommittee in a unified way since this is our only chance to discuss it before they meet.
I see Ms. Brunel and then I see Ms. Collins. Speaker 12: I just wanted to say of course it doesn't preclude Dr. Stash and Mr. Gillis meeting with the town staff with Jamie Erickson and other members. I'm not sure if they've hired any finance director, but you know, so what we discussed in the budget subcommittee might inform conversations that Dr. Stash and Mr. Gillis had on the administrative level too. So it's, I think that there's gonna be several part parts of communication and also we've spoken about our budget
guidelines that we produced last year in the budget. So I think that's also something that we as a committee want to, as a subcommittee, want to cement into our process of our future budgets and then to bring the select board into that process as well. So that would be another place where we could be partnering with them. Speaker 1: Okay, thank you Ms. Brunell. Ms. Collins, Speaker 9: Two things. One, the budget subcommittee is a posted meeting so deliberation can happen in the meeting. In the meeting though I agree with your outside
of the meeting caution and two, I just looked, I'm not here on the 29th, it was the 30th. I could do not the 29th. Speaker 1: Okay. Alright. Okay. Yeah, I'll take a look and see if we can possibly find a date when we've got better attendance. It was very difficult, I will say, trying to find these re retreat dates so Speaker 9: I, I understand. Yeah, I just will Speaker 1: Okay. Speaker 9: Update what I had said previous 'cause it was wrong. Speaker 1: Okay. Thank you Ms. Collins. Okay. Alright, any other thoughts on the financial management principle documents before we close that topic for today?
Okay. Alright, so now we will move on to our enrollment study report. Yeah, Speaker 8: Sure. Tracy with us? Yep, there you are. Yep. So this is our consultant from Future Think Tracy Healy. It's her company. I think most of the folks, except for Steve, we're here in the room when we decided late in the spring to have an enrollment study and see if we could get it done before we meet with MSBA, which is next week actually. So here's Tracy to give an an update and a full report on
and our enrollment projection. She, she's got a presentation that's been shared with you and also the report. So without further ado, I'll turn it over to Tracy. Speaker 13: Okay, thanks Mr. Gillis, it's my pleasure to be here with you today. So we've said, we've talked about an enrollment projection study and I'll share my screen so we can see that. And so as Met said, I, I am the owner and president of Future Think. We've been in business since May of 2006. Been doing this for close to 30 years now.
I worked for a previous planning firm prior to starting Future Think. We've worked with over a thousand districts all across the country getting a really a national perspective on what's happening with school districts, case studies, lessons learned, all sorts of issues we see arising all across the country. So it's really my pleasure to be here with you tonight to talk about Natick and, and what's happening here. In terms of enrollment projections, we really look at four key pieces of data.
The first being historical enrollments, what's happened in the district previously and what is currently underway is really an indicator of what we can expect as part of the future. We'll also look at birth data. We use the birth data to project what our future kindergarten classes might look like in terms of that. So we look at the historic numbers of births in the area and then compare that to the kindergarten five to six years later. So that gives us a, a survival ratio of that.
Birth to K that's really important. Obviously kindergarten, getting kindergarten right is really important as far as an enrollment projection of 10 years. We also look at just some general population estimates as well as projections that are done by out an outside company to get an idea of what's happening in terms of overall population. We'll also look at census data, American community survey data and kind of a whole host of things, just really to get an idea of what's happening within the district as a whole.
And then that helps us then identify what will happen as far as student enrollment. And then we'll also look at housing data. We have some new housing development underway, projected, we wanna make sure that that's captured as well as any of the in-out migration of students and if there are any other variables within the district. In this case, we looked at what was happening with private school, vocational school enrollment, which we've included in the report as well. So in terms of historical enrollment, we've seen a decrease
of 137 students over the last 10 years. Primarily that decrease has been at the elementary school. So we've seen, you know, kind from that just over 2200 students to just under 1900 students over, over that 10 year period. But what we've also seen is over the last, you know, three to four years leveling off of that kindergarten enrollment, we saw a drop this year, but we've been in that 1900, 19 50
for the last, you know, five years. So we've seen some of that decline decreasing. It just hasn't, you know, been a straight downward trend. In terms of the middle school, we've seen a slight increase of 39 students and at the high school we've seen an increase of 124 students over that 10 year period. In terms of the other school enrollment that I just mentioned, we've seen this year, or actually this past school year, the 24 25 school year, 269 students who are attending private or parochial schools, 16 students attending charter schools
and 74 attending the vocation technical schools. So those are schools who are, or students who are attending outside of the district in terms of birth counts. Looking at the town over the last several years, seeing how we have a decline, we were in the four hundreds peaked in 2014 at 463 bursts more recently. We've been in that 3 50, 360 count this last year, 2025.
Important to note, that's just through June 14th. So that's why that drops off dramatically as we as, as we look at the chart because we're only, we're only halfway through the year in terms of the bursts there. So again, we did see in 2024 a lower birth count than we had seen in the previous four or five years. In terms of some of those general demographics, this is data that we purchased by from Esri, which is the group who has put together arc view. Our GIS has a lot of geographic information systems mapping and collects data from a variety of sources.
So they put together population estimates and projections based on census block group. So we were able to roll up each of the census block groups that make up the district and put together these overall population estimates and projections that we can take. Look at the district as a whole. So in 2024 the pop total population was estimated to be just over 36,000 people. It's projected to decline slightly over the next five years, just at 61 people.
We also looked at it based on age groups. So looking at the zero to four population, a projected decrease of about 5% over the next four years, from ages five to nine were projected a decrease of about 9% middle school grade or ages 10 to 14, an increase of 94 students or 94 people. 'cause this is overall. So it includes all of the students, those who attend both public and private or other schools.
And then age 15 to 18, we see a projected increase of about 5%. So overall population for that, you know, zero to age 18 is projected to decline slightly just over 1% median age currently within the district is at 42 years of age projected to increase by 3% in into 2029. We've also mapped that, as I mentioned, it's all based on census block group data, so you can kind
of see the, the black group within each. So this total population is really projected to remain flat as we just talked about. But within you can see the areas of green are projected to increase slightly. And then these areas kind of in the lavender light purple are projected to decline. So you see that there are some pockets of projected increase there. This is looking at the school age population, so ages five
to 18 and as I mentioned, it's projected to decrease by about 1%. Again, you can see there are some pockets of green here showing projected increases within, within the district in terms of housing, you know, look at number of single and multifamily units and then identify what we can expect to see in terms of number of new students. This is based on the National Association
of Housing Builders and they did a study back in 2020 looking at the new construction of homes by type. So looking at single family detach as well as multifamily and developing how many students we can project to see based on new construction. So this first table just looks at the national average, which is for single family detach 0.43. So in other words, for every a hundred new single family detached units, you could expect about 43 students,
multi-family significantly lower. So for every a hundred multi-family units, you could expect about 12 students. They also broke it out by state. So taking a look here, it's a slightly lower for single family detached. So for every a hundred new homes we could expect about 35 students. And for multifamily it's actually a little bit higher than the national average. So about 21, well 21.5 students for every a hundred multifamily units. So looking, you know, historically what's happened in,
you know, the single family has kind of been in that 20 to 35 range in terms of new single family building permits for multifamily, haven't seen a lot recently, but you know, not too many in terms of historically. But we do see currently there are about 145 new units planned or underway. So we have 69 East Central Street, 45 East Central Street,
21 Summer Street, and 11 Washington Street. And we have that broken down by, you know, the number of bedrooms with the apartment mixes. So for, based on that state average, we could expect about 31 students roughly coming out of the new housing development. And also in looking at putting the enrollment together, the enrollment projections, we wanna also look at the survival ratios. So this is measuring the historical enrollment. So we're looking at the change grade to grade year by year.
So if we look at, you know, from kindergarten to first grade, this, you know, looks at each of the years. So from the 20 15 16 to the 20 16 17 year, we had 99.5% as a survival ratio. Meaning of those students who were in kindergarten, 20 15, 16, almost a hundred percent of them showed up in first grade the following year. And you can see on average, you know, we're right just over a hundred percent from
kindergarten to first grade. So, you know, very stable. And as we look at all of it, really across the board of all grades, we're right at, you know, a hundred percent, there's a couple of sections, five to six, it's a little bit lower, not much, but everywhere else we're right around that a hundred percent. The birth decay is a little bit different. Again, it's looking at births five years prior versus kindergarten. So we'll look, you know, so, and again though, pretty close to almost a hundred percent we're at 93%.
So, which is saying, you know, of all the children born in the town, 93% are showing up in kindergarten five years later. So very stable across the board in terms of the historical enrollment. So kind of based on all of these data points, we put together three sets of enrollment projections. We put together a moderate, a high and a low. So we have a range of which to work with as for planning purposes and indicating that really the moderate is the most likely in terms of
what we believe is going to happen in the future. So the moderate shows just a slight decrease, really a flattening of enrollment. So I mentioned earlier we're seeing kind of that flattening within the elementary level. So as that continues to happen, we'll see, you know, kind of that leveling off in enrollment. So this enrollment just shows a slight, slight decline at the, have a little increase at the pre-K level. In terms of projecting pre-K, we look at precheck pre-K
as a percentage of kindergarten. So again, because pre-K can vary dramatically based on policy, based on space availability, we just really look at it as a percentage of kindergarten and what it, what's been previously, you know, and multiplying that forward. For the elementary schools we see a slight decrease of seven students, five to eight, a decrease of 11, and at the high school a decrease of 39 students. So again, just a real kind of flat,
flat projection in terms of that moderate. We also put together projections for each of the schools. I'm not gonna go through all of that, but again, you can kind of just see based on, you know, what the enrollment was this, you know, just most recent school year to what's projected over, you know, the 10 year period. And again, you know, just pretty, pretty flat. Again, here's, here's the other two little gem memorial and then the middle schools and then the high school. And in the report as well, we did projections by grade,
by school for the high and low projections. Just a quick, you know, summary of some the differences between the high moderate and low. The high is a much, is a more aggressive projection showing that if interest rates were and inflation were to drop more dramatically, we'd see new housing coming in at a faster rate in, in the out migration. In migration at a higher rate for students. So, you know, sales of existing homes
and that turnover more quickly than what we've seen currently or historically. The moderate, again, you know, kind of is looking at, you know, current state and if that were to continue, here's, here's what we expect. And then the low assumes, you know, if inflation continues to rise, interest rates rise and there isn't really a lot of new housing or it's projecting at a much slower rate than projected than we, we'd see the low projection. So the high shows an increase of 340 students
or about 6% districtwide. The low shows a decrease of 480 students or 9% over that 10 year window. So just at little over 4,800 students in the 35, 34 school year. So that is kind of the quick overview of the report. I'm sure you have some questions. I'm happy to answer any of those questions as we move forward and I'll, I'll stop sharing at this point so we can,
Speaker 1: Thank you. That was, that was great. Really appreciate it. Oh great. Thank you. So questions from the committee. I'll go to online first. Any questions from our online committee members right now? Anybody in the room? Ms. Collins and then Mr. Meyer? I can wait till after the committee. Oh, that's fine. But I can do not do, okay. Okay. You can, you can ask questions in real time. No problem. Yeah. Ms. Collins. Set. Speaker 9: Okay, so Natick is fairly well built
out, as you said, there's not a lot of open space. Yes. One of the places that I've been wondering whether we might get an increase in students is as the independent living development comes on, think in particular the one in Union Street where seniors may move over there, be able to still stay in Natick, but those houses will open up with multiple bedrooms and it, is that sort of covered in this or was that like a different driver that we need to be aware of?
Speaker 13: Yeah, no, that would be covered within that we're looking, you know, we did, I didn't include the independent living on that, the chart of the new housing since we won't expect new students to come out out of that. But yes, but with that potential migration of students that, that is factored into the projections as we move forward. Speaker 9: Okay. And I understand your low projection, moderate projection and high projection, but
what happens if we get lower inflation but still don't get the faster housing starts because there's just no place to put them? Speaker 13: Right, right. Again, four, I mean we, we could do five sets of projections, but what we really we're aiming for with the three sets is a range of which to work. So what my recommendation would be as we move forward even into, you know, the, this coming school year is continue to monitor
the enrollment versus what's projected and then as you know, and then update as needed. So if we do see changing conditions, we'd wanna update the projections accordingly. We didn't, you know, put every, you know, single variable into each of the projections because I think it just, it starts to become too confusing and you're like, we don't wanna work with five sets of numbers, but these Speaker 9: Correlations and such. Yeah, Speaker 13: Exactly. Speaker 9: What I think I heard you say is these are the three most likely Speaker 13: The combinations?
Yes, yes. Okay. And then the moderate projection is what we would recommend kind of for initial, you know, kind of short, you know, like five year planning as we as moving forward. Speaker 9: Okay, thank you. Speaker 13: Okay, Speaker 1: Mr. Brand and then we'll go to committee members online. Speaker 11: So thank you for, I love data, this presentation, the deck is great and it's filled with lots of really fun things to look at. Obviously we can't accurately predict 10 years from now, I can't even tell you if the Red Sox are gonna win tonight.
I can't actually fairly certain I know what's gonna happen there. How do, do, I know that the, the Kathy was talking about is the high, moderate low. Can you say a little bit more about how you actually calculate the margin for error here? A and B? How, like in on my street in the last month, two families moved in who I know have, I think a total of four kids who went to one school in Natick and now we'll be attending a different school in Natick. And so like they're in diff they'll, they would end up in different school numbers
but still part of the population. And so like intra town movement and how, how that factors in, particularly as we look not just holistically at the whole district but at individual buildings. Right. So like how, how does that factor? And I know it obviously it's gonna be related to like housing plans, but as just as, as an example, one would not have been able to predict that a person on my street passed away, the family sold the house, a developer bought it, built a much bigger house and that could, that could have more people like, so like we,
we couldn't have, I mean I didn't, it's harder to predict generally when people might pass away and sell their house or have their house sold to a developer for example. Speaker 13: Sure, sure. Speaker 11: That's a lot. I know I just said a lot of things. Speaker 13: No, no, that it's all good. What we do in terms of looking at the projections. So what I will put together first are district wide projections. So I'll look, you know, kind of holistically as you said, at what's happening within the district and put together those three sets of high, moderate, and low.
But then, and so we can see, you know, won't give us the in migration or inter migration with from school to school, but gives us, you know, kind of a baseline from which to work because the larger number of that you work with in terms of projections, the greater the accuracy rate is, you know, as you get down to smaller numbers, you know, there's a higher percentage of error. So we wanna start at the district wide level working with all of the students and then getting that baseline and then digging into each of the schools.
So then we'll look at, so I developed, as we saw those survival ratios that were the district wide, I also developed survival ratios for each of the schools in the, in the district. So for all of the elementary schools have the survival ratios of what's happened over that 10 year window. So then based on that developing projection ratios of what we think is going to happen in the future. So again that, you know, I don't necessarily have to predict when people are getting to die,
nor would I want to do that. It's not a fun, fun thing to do, but, but knowing that that's happened before, right? It's not a new occurrence in the district. It may be a new occurrence on your street, but certainly people have, you know, either died or sold, older residents have sold their house and moved out and new families have moved in. We know that that's happened historically. So again, looking at each of those schools over that 10 window by grade, you know, gives us a
fairly accurate reading of what we might be able to project and predict moving forward for each of those. So that's, that's really kind of how we take a look at and then we look at, you know, that new housing, where is that occurring and where make that impact the schools as well. So hopefully that Speaker 11: Answers Thank you. Just one quick, so one quick summary follow up of that. So what is the reasonable margin of error? So at the end of 10 years, if the prediction is it's gonna be a delta of 50 kids out
of 6,000 plus, right? Is that basically what you would, that's what we would consider flat either way plus or minus. Like what is the number where we would say it's statist statistically significant at that change? Speaker 13: Well, I mean, yeah, I mean I think plus or minus that, you know, we're gonna say is fairly flat. I mean over, you know, 51 students is, you know, roughly two, two class classrooms over, you know, 13 grades. So it's not gonna have a huge impact in terms of number of,
you know, sections or units of that you would do over that period of time. There, there is agency that's part of the University of Virginia, which is called the well Weldon Cooper Center. And they have put together, you know, they, they do enrollment projections for the state of Virginia, but they've also done studies and kind of identified what, you know, what's a good projection. And so what they've come up with is if you're within like 1%
per year, that would be considered, you know, within, you know, within a good range of that. So, you know, looking over a period of 10 years, if your projection is within 10%, that would still be considered a good projection. I will say that as long as I've been doing these, you know, there are few outliers there COVID year, you know, I, my projections weren't, weren't excellent outside of COVID year, my projections have really ranged with
between three and 5% for that 10 year window. So, so I have a pretty high confidence in, in the accuracy of the projections based, based on, you know, historically what, what we've seen in terms of that again, you know, caveat there's, you know, thing things can happen that are not anticipated. And so again, you know, monitoring the projections moving forward if something happens, if, you know, for example several homes, you know,
we have several teardowns occurring in the district and we're seeing more families move in, certainly we'd wanna take a look at, you know, updating the projections and accounting for, you know, for any unforeseen variable that that may occur. Speaker 1: Okay. We'll go online. Ms. Flas just going in which order I see people. Speaker 10: Sure I, so I don't wanna be repetitive. I think it's along the lines of what Kathy and Matt have both brought up is just the matter of, I noticed in all the charts you had the population of 55 and over and I've just observationally qualitatively,
so not in your field of expertise seeing neighborhoods turnover based on built in the fifties and then you have these certain generations. And so it sounds to me what you're saying is that those turnovers based on the 55, 60, 65, 75 when you expect people to turn over their homes, whether they turn them over to new development like Matt was referring to or whether they turn them over to their children in a, that's kind of all factored into the models as well, right? Speaker 13: Right. Yeah and it is, it's really kind of like what we've seen is really like a 25 to 30 year cycle is
where you kind of start to see that happening when homes are starting to flip over. Certainly there's, you know, exceptions to that rule but on average can kind of see that Speaker 10: And that's all in the model. Speaker 13: Yep. Speaker 10: Got it. Thank you. Speaker 13: Sure. Thank you Speaker 1: Ms. Brunell. Speaker 3: Thank you Tracy. I'm from Ohio and I saw that you did Mansfield, so shout out to my hometown. Oh, Speaker 13: I don't live too. I'm about an hour south of Mansfield. Speaker 3: That's funny. Yeah, just, it's just like a, a funny fact and I looked up your company. Yeah, no I love, so thank you for this work. Sure.
First I have a comment that's actually more for our committee and the administration and that comment is wow the high school numbers darn it. Like I was hoping that they were gonna go down at some point, but I think that that's something that we have to have on our minds and I'm sure that Dr. Stash and team already have. Secondly, my questions are you, you've said like come back to you and I'm wondering if our contract with you extends for a few years, what does
that look like if we need to come back to you? Speaker 13: We currently do not have a contract extension, but Mr. Gilles and I have talked about that moving forward that certainly we could provide updates at a reduced rate moving forward since we already have kind of baseline data in place and that we could revisit that as needed moving forward. Speaker 3: Okay, thank you. Helpful. And then you answered one of my questions already so that your recommendation is take to take the moderate projection. I really appreciated the heat map.
I think that that's very important for us to look at in terms of buildings and where students are coming from, especially bus routes and those kinds of things. Right. So I really appreciated that. I'm not sure if you got this in question beforehand, but we had McKibbon at some point present to our committee and he at the time in the same line that you're talking about, we, the last few questions, this was in 2021 I believe he thought that 65%, or sorry 10% of our housing is owned by 65
or older people. And so at the time he felt like that 10% was not going to come flip over quickly because of the interest rates and things. Speaker 13: Okay. Speaker 3: I was wondering if that information, if that's consistent with your data Speaker 13: That I didn't look at specifically in terms of this, that 65 and older, but that is certainly something I can look at and get back to you that isn't in it's part of that formula.
What I really depend upon is the, those survival ratios and that in out migration as a way to predict what, what's going to happen in terms of housing turnover. But I can definitely look at that and get back, you know, get the answers back to the committee regarding that. Speaker 3: Okay, I appreciate that. I mean sure, Speaker 13: No problem. Yeah, I saw part of their presentation, I didn't see that specifically. I think there were only like 12 slides so Speaker 3: I don't, yeah, I Speaker 13: Don't think it was
Speaker 3: A comprehensive that I have and I can send you, I don't know but yeah, yeah, no Speaker 13: I'd be happy to look at that. Speaker 3: Okay. And then my be more for the administration through you Elise. How does this help us or how does this impact the meeting that will take place with the district and the MSBA? Did we basically, I'm asking did we get what we need? Are these consistent with Mr. Gillis's numbers? Speaker 1: And I would just ask that we just hold that question just 'cause I think we have a few more questions about the presentation and then we can pitch that to you.
Is that okay Dr. Stash? Okay. Did you have any another question, Catherine? Okay. No, then we'll move to Mr. Meyer miler. Sorry. It's okay Jean, not Oscar. Can Speaker 14: You hear me now? Can you hear me? Yep. Speaker 13: Yes. Speaker 14: Just a quick follow up on one of the questions that was D asked earlier on slide 56, it refers to the housing single and multifamily building units and it shows that in 2025 there were only six building
permits that were pulled that's associated with new construction. Or does that also include the tear downs and the rebuilds, which in Natick is pretty significant these days. Oh Speaker 13: Yeah. That, that table looked at only new. It did not it that the tear downs are not included at within that table. Speaker 14: So if, if somebody is, and it seems to be happening more often than I probably like most of the two and three bedroom houses are being torn down
and then four bedroom houses are being constructed. Are those type of expansions included at all in your calculations or is that just too hard to account for? Speaker 13: Again, it's kind of accounted for within that in out migration because this is something that's been occurring and not necessarily new, new phenomenon. So we have seen what's happened, you know, kind of over that last 10 year window and when I did some similar studies for Wellesley a couple of years ago, I actually, I've done projections
for them like over, it's probably seven or eight years we've done 'em like three times and that was also an issue that we wanted to talk about and you know, and again it's reflected within that within, within that in out migration. Speaker 14: Okay. So that's a possible variability that would be accounted for. Yeah, as we move forward it's kind of unique to, it's unique to Natick but it's not unique to other communities out there. And particularly what drives it is a lower interest rate
function where people are willing to either tear down the house and take out an equity loan or a new loan and then build a much larger houses. They're expanding their families. My last question, if you don't mind Sure. And continue between your high and your low, one of the things I look at is, okay, what are we dealing with the variances between the highest and the lows? So in a high you're saying we're looking about having additional across the 12 grades or the 13 grades and a need for 340 students or at the 24 students per classroom it's about 14 additional
classrooms would need. If you look at the low projection that you have, it's minus 480, which would mean that we would have a less of 20 classrooms that we would not need anymore based upon our current status. That's a swing of about 820 students. That's very, very broad to me. Yes. So I'm curious to know, can you refine that swing to a better number because I, I don't know how being on the building committee, how I could possibly say we could attest for
a projection based upon number of classrooms so that we don't overbuild or under build. So I'm curious to know, is there a way to get better refinement on these projections so that we don't have such a high swing? Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean we could definitely modify the projections and put, you know, a greater list of assumptions on that if we wanted to tighten, tighten those up. Okay. So for example, you know, getting to one of the earlier questions on, well what if it's faster
or lower interest rates but slower growth and you know, and those sorts of things. So we could develop a list of kind of variables that we're making assumptions about and to tighten, tighten that up because yes, I agree it is a wide range of projections and, but that that is definitely something we could do. Speaker 14: And then one last request. Sure. Would it be possible for you to provide some of the assumptions behind the high and the low in terms of
what is the interest rate projections and inflation projections that you have on there that are the core behind it? Because I'm sure if this goes to town meeting in some presentation town meeting members are gonna say, okay, are you carrying a 3% inflation rate or you carrying a 5% or 1%? It might be helpful to have some additional detail around the assumptions that go behind the highs and the lows, particularly since there's a large swing. Speaker 13: Okay, Speaker 14: Thank you. Speaker 13: Okay. Yeah, thank you. Speaker 1: No, Speaker 13: I'm just taking notes so I'm sorry if I'm looking down
and not right at you. Speaker 1: Oh no, not at all. Any other questions from the committee before we go to Ms. Pernell's? Question to the administration? Okay, go ahead Ms. Brunell. Alright, do you still, do you have that question Dr. Stash or do you want her to restate Speaker 6: It? Yeah, no, I think I have it. It was two pieces. One was how tightly aligned was the moderate projection with Mr. Gillis's projection. So I'm gonna let him kind of weigh in on that piece. And then the second question we'll address afterwards is how we might anticipate this would affect our MSBA meeting. Is that right? Ms. Brunell
Speaker 1: Got a thumbs up. Speaker 8: So I used the, just a straight line cohort survival method, not changing the numbers using a three year average where we had about 5,300 students total for this year, 10 years from now. I had us at, at 48 72 and Tracy had the total district enrollment, what was it, 5100 5200 is it was more stable because she had take at,
added in some other factors, which I didn't really want to take the liberty of. I just wanted to show the straight, straight math. And my estimate had 344 kindergartners. I think Tracy's had 3 47 as of Friday. We were at 3 57. I, you know, her points about interest rates, but you heard me talk about a little bit earlier before, and the ability for some people to move with a kind of a tight housing market
and a lot of people with interest rates and two and 3% the prospect of selling your house, getting a, a good price for it. But then where are you gonna go and have a new mortgage in in the sixes? Some, a lot of people will take a look at it and say, well, I might wanna move, but I'm in a pretty good place and I'm just gonna have to wait and see before I make a change. Right. Especially if they have school aged kids and they're, you know, reasonably happy with us. I I think they're gonna stay. So our birth to kindergarten rate is, is going up and if the interest rates stay where they are
and you know, almost all those kids that were born, they're more likely to stay in town. And that stabilizes our enrollment all the way through. And our, our high school was a little underbuilt and has been full in a draw in my opinion since we've been here. And so yes to, to an earlier question, that was one of the things noticed and something that I think will be talked about with the pre-K program and, and how we consider options for the, for the new memorial. I guess I'll yield back to the, to the chair
or the superintendent for the other question. Speaker 6: Did that answer it for you Ms. Brunell or do you have follow up regarding that? Speaker 3: It did. So in summary future think or Tracy, your numbers are a little bit bigger than what I think. So mats were and the MSBA is even is much lower, is that right? Speaker 8: We haven't seen their numbers right. Okay. They tend to favor the state as a whole more so than, than the individual town. But you know, as long as the committee finds this report acceptable, I I would submit it to MSBA.
Yeah. Because it, you know, if they approve more students, we get a little more money for square footage and we can rightsize the school a little better. 'cause you know, I if it's not like we would turn away a project if they said, well you know, you think you need 25 classrooms, we're gonna give you 23.2 we're, it's not like we're gonna say no, we're just gonna have to pay for the 1.8 difference. So, you know, hopefully this report helps demonstrate the stability of the town
and the desirability of the town and that we want to, we want to build it right and not be, not be kind of not be in the position we are at the high school where we're trying to fit more in than, than what it was designed for. And since it's an elementary school and there's four elementary schools and this school abuts two different zones, that's something else we could look at for flexibility. But there, there are ways that the data is helpful for the long-term planning and I expect the state will take that into consideration, you know, should we submit it?
Speaker 6: Yeah. So I just wanna remind the committee that there, Mr. Gillis sent a memo on April 3rd, 2025 that outlined his projection and we're happy to resend that to the committee if it would be a good refresher. So, but that was when it was sent by email and Yeah, exactly what you said in terms of the connection to the data. So as Mr. Gillis said, we haven't yet seen what the MSBA is gonna come in with. That meeting is on the 30th of July from one to 2:00 PM Mr. Gillis, myself and Mr.
Myer will meet ahead of time to kind of strategize around that and we would like to, and in the past, this is what Mr. Gillis has done, send this report in advance to the MSBA for their consideration. So that's our plan. Unless anybody here sees any problem with that, that's what we would plan to do following this meeting. The only other thing I wanted to mention is that this will be presented again to the SBC on August 4th, which is another open meeting. Speaker 15: Who's the SBC? Speaker 6: The School Building Committee. Oh, building committee. Yes. Yeah, I got lost in my acronym. Sorry. Too many acronyms. Sorry. Happens
Speaker 15: To be frequently. Speaker 6: So the short answer Ms. Brunell, is we honestly don't know until we have that meeting, but I think sending this report ahead of time would be smart. Speaker 1: Mr. Miler, Speaker 14: For what it's worth, I agree with you. I think sending it in advance is an important key piece of information that they use. May I ask through you chair to Matt, I think one of the strategies might be entailed is also trying to take students outta trailers to size the memorial school so that we can rebalance
what has been overcrowded. Is that part of the strategy or is, is it not? Speaker 8: I administratively I would say yes, but I think that's something for the school building committee and, and the school committee to discuss. So to, to really spell it out. We have modulars at and Brown because our population grew and we needed to put, I, I'll call it semi temporary. They, they, they're supposed to last about 20 years. We added six classrooms to each building. Do we want to consider and how much would it cost?
But do we want to consider building Memorial a little bit bigger so that we have flexibility to deal with population swings or doing away with modulars as as, as they sort of age out. Because the, the chances of doing both Lilja and Brown at the same time after Memorial seem somewhat remote. It seems to be one school at a time every so many years, which is not abnormal, you know, even
for a town twice the size of Natick. So, you know, it's, for me, it's something that the committee should think about both the school committee and the, and the school building committee. But yeah, it's, it's, it's a, it's a fair question. Speaker 1: Okay. You have a follow up? Speaker 14: Go ahead. Yes, just a quick follow up. I completely agree with you. I think that one of the other key elements associated here is those modular units as you refer to have a limited age and there will be a capital cost to the town to replace those and replacing those is not a great
permanent solution for an educational space. So I fully support for what it's worth that it would be personally support, I should say that because I'm not reflecting that of the building committee my own personal recommendation is that we try and include that so that we can right size the town with appropriate hardscape classrooms and location and spaces, Speaker 1: Mr. Gillis. Speaker 8: So that's an example for everybody that's watching at home of, of a study option that when if should we get invited into the study looking at
the option of a five section school or a six section school And I start with five section because it's basically a five section per grade now except for two grades. You know, we wouldn't build a four and, and be be overcrowded before we even opened it. So, you know, that to me is sort of starts the base. But, so those are, will be in some very interesting and detailed conversations coming up with what's, what's the best new memorial for Natick
Speaker 1: And I, I see hands online. I just wanted to ask a follow up question on this before I get to the two questions online. So do I understand then that the process is should we get invited in for the next stage? There would be more conversation about what the size of the school would be and that that information would be shared with the school committee kind of in real time. Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I think we'll probably be reporting back to the school committee on what the school building committee is doing and of course if the school committee wants to make it a joint meeting, we can do that.
Speaker 1: Okay. Alright. Thank you. Alright, Ms. Flas and then Ms. Brunell. Speaker 10: I think Catherine had her hand up first if she wants Speaker 1: To go. Oh, okay. Ms. Brunell. Speaker 3: Oh thanks Kate. I don't know but, so I'm just gonna say it now 'cause I don't wanna regret not saying it later. What do we want for native elementary schools in terms of the size of our schools and given that it's going to be flat? I personally don't want huge elementary schools. I'm not saying that they need to be 250 students,
but I would love to see elementary schools hover at the max around 400. And I am not sure how to do that given the numbers and that we've gone down to four elementary schools. Speaker 1: Okay. Thank you Ms. Brunell. Ms. Lathers, Speaker 10: Not questions for administration but comments at this point, but you feel free, Matt listed a weigh in. Similarly, when I look at Tracy at your, where the population growth is and what the income disparities are across Natick,
and I recognize that we have not established what the location of a new memorial would be, but the, I I would wanna know whether there's a traffic study that's part of all of this. And also I will never get behind a plan where we, we bus our most vulnerable students across the entire town. Like that is horrifying to me if I think about trying to put 700 kids down there and busting them from like all the way from West Natick or North. I also agree with, I do not think a 700 kid elementary school is what aligns
with our values here in Natick. I can get behind four schools even looking at these numbers because, you know, we had very small Johnson and very large behe and I think you could balance across four. But I've said many times that the idea of of agreeing or getting behind or advocating for a debt exclusion for a new school without a real solid plan for Loja and Brown, where we see both the most vulnerable students and the most population growth is untenable for me until there's like a real plan across all the elementary schools.
My last comment, and Melissa you may have a very different philosophy on this, but is a very stated objective by the previous administration that one of the reasons for closing Johnson is that equity across the schools is more achievable when the schools are all of a similar size. So you can, you can align with, I I will, I will not use any of the right words, but, but having, you know, a 400, a 400 and some odd student benham and a 250 Johnson and three hundreds in between made it difficult to align. And so if we are going to a place
where we'll have one very large and smaller ones, that is also completely untenable, untenable for me. And I just, I I just wanna put those, those observations out there. Speaker 1: Okay, thank you Ms. Lathers. Any members in the room? Yeah, so I, I think, and it's just getting back to my question about when, you know, when our contributions can really inform the decision about the project. Like I, because I do think I'm hearing very strong and, and, and we've, we've heard, you know, a very strong interest
in ensuring that our elementary schools, that we're not just ignoring the ones that we're not rebuilding right now as well. And I think that all of these concerns are really valid. You know, I don't, you know, the modulars, we've had many discussions about how the modulars may allow more classroom space but put a lot of pressure on those shared spaces. So that is an ongoing issue and if we, you know, can somehow remedy that, that would be a good thing. I share the concerns about busing students from far away and I I thought I saw you nod Mr. Gillis about the question
if there's a traffic study involved in the MSBA program. Speaker 8: Yeah, almost any time you're gonna build a new building, especially if you're gonna relocate it. But even if you're gonna, you know, really change the size and scope of the existing facility, the MSBA generally asks you to look at traffic safety options and you know, common thing in suburban schools and even suburban ones is to have a bus drop off and a parent, you know, car drop off so that you can reduce the, the chances of
of accidents and, and traffic congestion at school. So I I, I'd be really surprised if we don't wind up with a traffic consultant shortly after we hire the owner's project manager and, and or the, the architect to look at options. Speaker 1: Okay. Mr. Miler Speaker 14: On the same topic, typically once we will, we will of course be getting a traffic study done just like it was just stated. And typically that gets reviewed in preliminary design and then prior to final design. And we look at different options that we have
to alleviate based upon the site selected. And to answer a previous question, we have not selected a site. We'll be going through a site selection process, which is required by the MSBA, regardless of we stay where we are or not. We are required to go through that process and submit a report on the output of that. And that will happen after we get the OPM and the architect on board. The traffic study is usually brought in from the OPM and or through the architect. Speaker 1: Okay. And then just to, so what I'm hearing is the traffic study might be more about traffic in
and out of the school site, wherever that might be. Would it, would it take into account numbers of kids and distances that they travel to school? Speaker 14: So it will be talking about the management of the site and how many students and how many vehicles will be coming through the site. Not just of the site but also coming through the adjacent roads. If you look at, for example, the high school in Kennedy, we actually built additional, we widened roads, we put different methods to control traffic, slow down traffic to manage it.
And it's always desirable to try and separate out the buses from the, the parent drop off, which is always a challenge for most of the building principals no matter what they do. And then we will also, if there is a preschool element of it, we will be trying to create a separate traffic flow for that as well. So it's too early for us to get into any types of details, but it is all considered to an nth degree that you probably would rather not sit through most
of those discussions but they will occur, I can assure you. Speaker 1: Okay. Dr. Fash and I do see you Ms. Brunell will just let Dr. Fash respond. I'm Speaker 6: Happy to go after Oh no, go ahead. Okay, so just some, I'm glad you brought up the mods. The way I'm seeing this is feeling very fortunate that we are in this process with MSBA, with the SOI that was submitted, right? And so that SOI is what MSBA is gonna make an offer around. So I just wanna remind the committee that that had its scope, right and we now that we're kind of settling
and we might end up wanting a broader scope that then would be, we'd have to go to town meeting to ask for. And so it's kind of bringing up to everyone's points here, the mods, those are very real long-term issues we may have, but they're outside of the original scope of the SOI. So I just wanna remind us that all of that, to me, I'm seeing a really deep and comprehensive analysis around what's the cost and what are the pros and the cons because we've already heard many here from a representative body. So I think there's a lot of engagement of the public beyond, even beyond this that we would host as a school committee to kind of hear what the public is interested in.
I think there's some need for the school to weigh in on our understanding of how kids learn best and what the research is saying around that. So there's many different pieces that I think in my mind I'm the com compartmentalizer if that's a word. And I like to get through like let's get through eligibility and get on the MSBA next phase and then I think we have to open it up to some broader analysis to decide how big we wanna make this with the, the greater needs of our town and our students. I'm so happy to have this enrollment report to kind of be a really sturdy background to that and listening to, to kind of the confidence intervals
that Tracy shared seem very promising to me and the link to kind of Mr. Gillis's work. I do think not only traffic but like districting, there's many things to look at. These heat maps are really compelling in terms of where our kids are and where our kids are growing. So we're sitting here right now and we should with a lot of brainstorming and questions and kind of first slice and take on this data that's only gonna get bigger and need some more analysis behind it. So I'm just letting you know where my mind is as I listen to this report and to all the good ideas on the table. Speaker 1: Thank you Dr. Stash, Ms. Brunell, Speaker 3: That's very helpful especially to remember the SOI.
So thank you for that. I about the, about the traffic study, my understanding is that the traffic study happens after the site selection takes place. So I think our committee may need to, if it, if that's the case, our committee may need to think of a whole more, a larger traffic study about how far the students are coming to certain schools. So that might be in addition to what happens at the specific site for the traffic study once the site.
But I, 'cause I think what we're saying is that we may need to consider traffic before the site is selected. Is that, does that make sense? It's hard to know on Zoom if this is, if I'm communicating, Speaker 1: People are nodding. I think Dr. Spa, Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm happy to weigh in. I mean that's very much on my mind as you're talking. I'm writing like let's even get the baseline for right now. We don't always have to hire somebody from the outside to get a baseline of how traffic is moving right now. Yeah, okay. So again, like our commodity here is time to, to kind of take the time at that. But I think that we're gonna figure out the pieces of data
that are going to be essential not only to kind of, let's say the scope of the project that's outlined in the current SOI or potentially even a broader scope of a project that would cost additional money that might be a very different traffic study. And so it's up to us. I mean it's up to us how big or small we make that, Speaker 3: And maybe to your point, like maybe Connolly Transportation already has pieces of the bus of a transportation. If they could just like share with us how far the bus the buses go or like the, you know what I mean? Just like maybe the data is in the bus
company that we already use. Like I Speaker 1: If, and I if I can add to that Ms. Bruno, I think some of the pieces that I think are interesting are not only the distance that students travel, but how long they spend on the bus to go that distance. Yeah. Because I know my kids can walk to school and the same amount of time as the Speaker 6: Bus, we have that data. Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. Speaker 1: So I think that'll, that'll be compelling to know that Speaker 3: And consider. Yeah. Anecdotally I always used to be jealous of families that went to a different school whose elementary kids got home at four 15 instead of 2 35 because I wanted some more time by myself.
That's my own problem though. And then just one more question. I know that the, the desire is to get this report to the MSBA. I am comfortable with this report. I know that there was a question made to Tracy, I'm sorry that I don't know your last name, but made to you about shortening up the higher and the lower numbers. I'm curious if the range that you've given us, you've seen in other districts and is typical or if we need to wait until that range is brought in in order to send it to the MSBA? Speaker 13: Well, I mean for a district this size,
I think the range is fairly typical because what we're trying to represent is, you know, kind of, I, I don't wanna say, I guess you can look at it either way, best and worst case, whether you think the lows low best or the worst and the high. So kinda where, where is that, you know, where we're, we don't think it's gonna grow much more more than, you know, the high, we don't think it's going to decrease lower than what we put as the low.
So that is kinda why it's a wide range is because we wanna, you know, cap it at either level for those best worst case scenarios as far, you know, as tightening it up for the MSBA that that's really, that's really for the administration to determine in, in your group. I don't wanna comment on that Speaker 1: Mr. Miler, Speaker 14: Since I brought that question up. I'd like to state that I believe the report is sufficient for the MSBA at this time and it doesn't need to be tightened up. Adding the additional details for our own information for
around the high, what's behind the high and low would be beneficial. But I would continue forward and provide the report to the MSBA at this point in time. That's my recommendation. Speaker 1: Okay. Thank you Dr. Bash. And I I do see you Ms. Laers, you'll be next. Speaker 6: Yeah, just to add on that, that's, I completely agree and I'm very interested in those inflation and interest percents that are already assumed inside the document. Speaker 1: Ms. Lathers, Speaker 10: I definitely don't wanna belabor the point, but I just do wanna reconfirm a traffic plan once a site has been established is a plan to do the best you can with what you've got.
But I think especially if you think about the current memorial site with, you know, the aqueducts and, and other things, I just, it's a complicated site and it's a lot of kids that I've heard I've heard talked about. But I also wanna just put out there that I think we had a conversation in the spring that in early fall we would be doing a retrospective of Kennedy and what, you know, how successful it the build was and what were some of the concerns coming out of it. And I just wanna take this opportunity to plug again with Matt, Melissa, when are we gonna actually, you know, be able to have that conversation
and a process for, for doing retrospective on that build. Speaker 6: Thanks for that. And bringing it up. Again, that's a, a called a post occupancy evaluation. I think it's POE, it's phase nine. It's a new phase in the MSBA and MSBA will reach out to us. All I've done so far and the only communication I've gotten from them so far is that we've committed to wanting to do that. It's volunteer. It won't be volunteer in the future. So once we, and if we finish memorial, it will be compulsory. So I don't have additional information for you. We have another outstanding item with the MSBA, just to kind of be real about response time.
We've asked for an extension on our eligibility phase so that we can get it in time for town meeting. And I, even though I've written several follow up emails, I haven't gotten a response on that. So sometimes we just have to wait when we're at our enrollment meeting, I'll bring that up and I'll bring up as well that extension again. So I'm just letting you know, sometimes their responsiveness isn't quite where I'd love it. I know they're very busy so I don't have an answer, but we are committed to do that this fall. Speaker 10: Okay. I mean if and if it doesn't come outta them, whether we have a version of it ourselves, I just feel very strongly that that needs to be part of
what goes into before we make any decisions on next steps at Memorial. Speaker 6: Okay. I'll keep you posted. I'm anticipating getting that certainly I to say around the start of the school year is what I think, but don't know. Speaker 1: Okay. Any other questions or comments on this topic? And then I have a question, Ms. Collins, Speaker 9: Do we need a motion to send? Speaker 1: That was my question. I'm sorry. Speaker 9: Go ahead. Speaker 1: So, so I guess the question to us as a committee, do we feel like we need to vote this to have this report sent to the MSBA or does the fact that we commissioned this report for this purpose mean that as long as we don't object
it can be sent to the MSBA MR brand? Speaker 11: I think we probably don't need to vote for it, but there's no harm in voting for it to show our support of the report. Speaker 1: All right then. Yes, Ms. Collins, I would love a motion. Speaker 9: Okay. Move to direct the administration to share the enrollment study in whatever form they wish slides and or report itself with the MSBA prior to the enrollment meeting scheduled for the final week of July 2nd.
Speaker 1: Okay. So I'll vote on this. I'll go to online first. Ms. Lathers? Speaker 3: Yes. Speaker 1: Oh, did, was there any discussion on that first? Sorry. Seeing none. Okay, so Ms. Lathers was a Yes. Ms. Brunell? Speaker 3: Yes. Speaker 1: Mr. Patel? Yes. Ms. Collins? Yes. Mr. Brand? Yes. And I am a yes. So that passes with 6 0 0. Okay. So I think that was our last item of business. Speaker 11: Motion to adjourn. Second. Speaker 1: All right, we'll vote on that. Ms. Lathers. Wait, Speaker 3: Wait, wait. Sorry, sorry, sorry. I have a quick announcement. Okay.
Sorry. Just at least I saw in the email the August 25th meeting with the select board. Speaker 1: Oh yes. All right. That should have been an announcement. So yes. Thank you so much for reminding me. So we're trying again to have our joint kickoff, the school year meeting with the select board and FinCon. They have proposed a date of August 26th of 25th, August 25th for a dinner meeting. I think they said it's their turn to provide food. Does anyone know, we may not know right now, but if you could get back to me if you think that August 25th can work for you for an evening
joint meeting with the select board in fin com and then if we can't get a, a good quorum or enough people, we'll try again for a different date. That sound good? Okay. We'll continue voting. Did we vote on the Speaker 9: Except for Speaker 1: You. Except for me. And we voted. Yes. Speaker 3: We voted. I didn't vote. Speaker 1: Yes. Yep, we voted. Speaker 11: Now the rest of us have to vote. Speaker 1: Okay. So Mr. Patel? Yes. Ms. Collins Speaker 9: Adjourn. Speaker 1: Mr. Brand? Yes. I'm a yes. So we are adjourned. All right. Goodnight everybody.